Hypotheticals

I like this clip of Rafael Nadal answering a question about a hypothetical scenario:

I often see teams spend too much time on hypotheticals early in the design and development process. For example, planning for all potential edge cases and anticipated customer feedback before delivering the first version of a feature to real users.

The assumption being made is that the initial design is correct and so it is a good use of time to put thought into what’s beyond that initial design. But so often assumptions are incorrect and the first version of the feature is very rarely the version that will take off.

In other words, one-shotting a feature is very rare.

This is increasingly true the faster the software industry evolves. Technology and user expectations now change month-to-month. Paradigms, metaphors, interaction patterns, technical capabilities, customer requirements, and competition moves much faster than even three years ago. In this landscape, thinking too far ahead is wasted energy.

While it is important to have the broad strokes of a vision to drive alignment, motivate, and inspire, this cannot come at the cost of making progress today.

If, if, if doesn’t exist.